Lincoln mulls what to do as it approaches population milestone of 300,000

Lincoln was defined as a primary-class city under state law, but reaching 200,000 people would bump it up with Omaha as metropolitan-class cities and require some significant changes in operations.

That never happened, though, because local and state officials got together and changed state law in the early '90s to push the metropolitan-class city population threshold to 300,000.

As the 2020 Census gets underway, Lincoln is again creeping toward a major population milestone.

Based on estimates that had Lincoln at about 287,000 people in 2018 and the growth patterns over the past several years, it's unlikely the city would reach 300,000 people in the official 2020 Census count, but it will probably hit that number soon after, possibly in 2021 or 2022.

Since official census numbers are used to determine what class a city falls under state law, it means the city has some time — nearly a decade — to consider its options.

"We're not pressing the panic button because we don't need to," said City Attorney Jeff Kirkpatrick.

Kirkpatrick said that while it hasn't been decided yet whether Lincoln will seek to again change state law, he believes officials will eventually move in that direction.

One of the big reasons is that becoming a metropolitan-class city would require some significant governance changes.

For example, Lincoln's seven City Council members would all have to be elected by district. Currently, only four of them are, while the others are elected at-large by voters across the city.

Lincoln also would have to form a metropolitan utilities district and possibly provide citywide services such as trash service.

Beyond the logistical and financial ramifications the bump in classification might have on Lincoln, there also are some practical considerations, Kirkpatrick said.

For example, Lincoln and Omaha are very different cities with different issues and different ways of doing things, and lumping them together legally could present unintended consequences.

Now, if Omaha or Lincoln wants to push narrow legislation, it is easy for the Legislature to support it, because it wouldn't affect any other city.

Having Lincoln move into the metropolitan classification, "really would change our ability to make state law changes that affect us, because we would have to be on the same page (with Omaha)," Kirkpatrick said. "That's no small thing."

Beyond the legislative issues, it doesn't appear that hitting the 300,000 mark will significantly change how Lincoln is viewed.

Richard Meginnis, president of commercial real estate firm NAI FMA Realty and a member of the City Council, said the population milestone won't make any difference to site selectors or retailers or other companies scoping out new locations.

"We're still a tertiary city, and we'll be that way until our (metropolitan area) hits a million," Meginnis said.

He said that while the City Council has not discussed the issue, he agrees with Kirkpatrick that it would probably make sense for Lincoln to remain a primary-class city.

Hitting 300,000 people doesn't really do anything special for economic development efforts, either, said Pat Haverty, vice president of the Lincoln Partnership for Economic Development.

"We have for several years rounded up to 300,000 for conversations and often reference the (metro area) population, which is pretty typical for economic development organizations," Haverty said.

He said he couldn't think of any state or federal programs that Lincoln would qualify or lose eligibility for by crossing the 300,000 mark.

David Cary, the planning director for Lincoln and Lancaster County, said that from a planning perspective, it's more about how a city feels size-wise than it is about a specific population number, and as Lincoln keeps growing, it continues to be faced with decisions about where to spend scarce funds on things such as new streets and sewer lines.

In that regard, Lincoln and Omaha certainly have very different feels. Omaha is hemmed in by a state border to the east and a county border to the south. As a result, Omaha has a large suburban population.

Omaha, based on census estimates, had 466,061 people in 2018, but its metro area — including counties in Iowa — totaled 944,316.

Lincoln, on the other hand, is in the middle of a large county, with miles to grow in every direction. It also has an annexation policy that discourages construction housing developments outside the city limits.

Lincoln's metro area, which includes only Lancaster and Seward counties, totaled 334,590 people in the latest estimates.

As for state classifications, changing the law again will likely only postpone the issue, with the state's largest cities growing at a steady pace. In another 30 years, Lincoln is likely to hit 400,000 people, and Bellevue and/or Grand Island could hit 100,000, which would bump them up to primary-city status.

For now, though, Lincoln will have to make a decision soon on how it wants to deal with the approaching milestone. And the sooner the better, as far as Kirkpatrick is concerned.

"The fact that we've got plenty of time doesn't mean we should ignore it till it's staring us in the face," he said.