Luke Mullin and Amie Just discuss Nebraska’s aggressive efforts recruiting both the state of Texas, and the transfer portal. Plus, a check-in on both Husker basketball teams.
There’s often no substitute for experience in the Big Ten.
Veteran players are often the backbone of the conference’s most successful teams, particularly in key positions like quarterback, offensive line and linebacker.
But, just how important is experience spread over an entire roster? Data compiled by the Journal Star about every Big Ten program’s roster retention rate reveals that some programs excel at keeping players for multiple seasons, while others struggle at the same task.
Roster retention
Determining roster retention begins with a simple calculation. Take a team’s roster and define how many players returned from last year’s roster. An example: Nebraska’s 2019 team consisted of 159 total players — 96 of those players remained with Nebraska in 2018, which makes a retention rate of 60.4%.
People are also reading…
Over a four-year period from 2019-2022, every Big Ten team retained between 60%-75% of its roster on average. But, certain schools stand out above the rest of the pack.
From 2019-22, teams with stability at head coach did the best at retaining players within their programs.
Three of the top four teams in retention rate hail from the Big Ten West with longtime head coaches over this period — Wisconsin’s Paul Chryst (2015-22), Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald (2006-present) and Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz (1999-present). Of the top seven teams with the best roster retention, only two made a head coaching hire during this period — Ohio State with Ryan Day and Michigan State with Mel Tucker.
Contrast that with the bottom half of the Big Ten, where there’s plenty of coaching overhaul. Penn State, Purdue, Indiana and Nebraska all had one coach from 2019-22, while Illinois, Maryland and Rutgers all changed head coaches during this period.
Best and worst offseasons
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the recent proliferation of the transfer portal has affected teams’ ability to retain their players. Five of the 10 worst offseason marks in roster retention come from the most recent year, 2022, while four of the 10 best marks come from the year before, 2021.
Naturally, the additional year of eligibility granted to players due to the COVID-shortened 2020 season affected the inflated rate of returners in 2021 and the decreased numbers in 2022.
Nebraska huddles before a play against North Dakota on Sept. 3, 2022, at Memorial Stadium.
When it comes to roster retention, there is a clear give-and-take relationship from one season to the next. Indiana had the best mark of any Big Ten school in 2021 when 98 of the 121 players on its 2021 roster returned from the year prior, only to completely overhaul its team in 2022 with 66 returners on a 125-man roster.
At Rutgers, the 2021 season is a clear aberration to its overall trend. The Scarlet Knights already had two of the conference’s worst rates in 2019 and 2020 and followed up the inflated 2021 season with a conference-worst 48.46% retention rate in 2022.
Roster size
Nebraska’s struggles with roster retention can be partly explained by its massive roster sizes. Because most Big Ten teams average roughly 110-120 players per season, 11 of the conference’s 14 teams have similar four-year roster size totals ranging in the mid-to-high 400s.
Then, there’s Iowa, which averaged 129.5 players per year over this period, and Michigan, which averaged 141.25. And even far beyond those two schools is Nebraska, with a whopping four-year average of 156 players on its roster per season.
On one hand, Nebraska’s large roster numbers should theoretically give the Huskers an advantage in the experience-driven Big Ten. But, when the bulk of that 156-man roster are walk-ons who rarely (if ever) see the field, the numerical advantage goes away.
Even worse, Nebraska struggled to keep its scholarship players in the program for multiple seasons under Scott Frost. Nebraska's 2018 recruiting class featured 22 high school signees, and only nine remained on the roster within three seasons. The 2019 class was more steady, with 14 out of 27 players remaining with the Huskers by 2022. And while it's still early to tell with the school's 2020 recruiting class, over half of its signees had left the program within two seasons.
The on-field results
If experience is truly so important in the Big Ten, then the teams with the best roster retention rates should win more games, right? The data supports it.
The schools with the seven best roster retention rates (Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan and Michigan State) totaled 213 wins over this four-year period, while the Big Ten’s bottom half won 146 games.
While win totals are slightly affected by the shortened 2020 season, the teams with the best roster retention averaged 7.6 wins per year; the teams with lower roster retention averaged 5.2 wins per season.
Takeaways
While there is a relationship between roster retention and winning, it’s difficult to say which way that relationship goes. Do schools win more games because they keep players on their roster from season to season, or do players want to stay because their team is already successful?
The transfer portal is a tremendous tool for teams to fill short-term needs and add talent on a yearly basis. But, for teams that begin to rely on it year-in and year-out, the concept of roster retention could become an afterthought.
And for Nebraska in particular, it will be interesting to see whether head coach Matt Rhule can reverse this trend. Will Nebraska’s roster size decrease in coming years, and will Nebraska be able to keep players on its roster in larger numbers?
The data suggests that Rhule and Nebraska would be wise to do both.
Top Journal Star photos for January 2023
Nebraska Supreme Court Chief Justice Michael Heavican (left) swears in the new senators for 2023, on Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023, at Nebraska State Capitol in Lincoln.
Sen. John Fredrickson shows his son, Leon, the inside of the west wing on the first day of the 2023 Legislature on Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023, at the Nebraska State Capitol in Lincoln.
Kristina Konecko, an administrative aide for Sen. Mike Jacobson of North Platte, boxes up items at his old desk Tuesday at the Capitol. The new session begins Wednesday.
Gov. Jim Pillen shakes hands with Senator Tony Vargas after the inauguration ceremony for the governor on Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, at Nebraska State Capitol in Lincoln.
A camera flash illuminates the newly elected Gov. Jim Pillen (center left) as he is escorted through the rotunda to the West Chamber to be sworn in on Thursday at Capitol in Lincoln.
Milford's Izzy Yeackley (left) grabs a rebound in front of Malcolm's Emma Brown on Thursday in Malcolm.
Tell Hanes (left) of the Waverly Fire Department and Southeast Rural Fire's Trey Wayne jump over freezing water to high-five while practicing surface ice rescues Friday at Holmes Lake. "We try to run these trainings for both our students and local first responders to make sure they are ready in case anything real happens," said Andrew Saunders, of the International Rescue and Relief program at Union College.
Lincoln Southeast's Kaitlyn Freudenberg (from left) tries to hold onto the ball against Lincoln Southwest's Brinly Christensen and Aniya Seymore on Friday at Lincoln Southwest.
Nebraska's Kendall Moriarty does push-ups as her teammates cheer after the Huskers beat Penn State on Wednesday at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Nebraska's Brock Hardy (right) wrestles Minnesota's Jakob Bergeland in the 141-pound match, Friday, Jan. 13, 2023, at the Devaney Center.
Ali Al-Mohammed, 17, kicks a soccer ball after school on Tuesday in front of Park Middle School. Renovations at Park that were part of the 2020 bond issue included a new cafeteria space.
Parkview Christian's Isabella Minatti (middle, right) is fouled against Johnson-Brock during a MUDECAS Tournament semifinal game Thursday at Beatrice Auditorium.
Nebraska's Emmanuel Bandoumel makes a dunk against Illinois' Matthew Mayer on Tuesday at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Nebraska's Derrick Walker is introduced before the Illinois game, Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2023, at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
A truck passes over an icy Platte River along U.S. 6 on Friday near Ashland. Friday's temperature failed to get above freezing, but the forecast for Saturday and Sunday is much better, with temperatures in the high 40s and low 50s before precipitation chances Sunday night and Monday.
A pair of ice skaters journey across a frozen Holmes Lake at sunset on Friday, Jan. 13, 2023, in Lincoln. As winter continues, weather this week will be consistently in the 40s with a dry weekend.
Ohio State's Rebeka Mikulášiková collides with Nebraska's Maddie Krull as they battle for the ball underneath the rim in the third quarter Saturday at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Kyrie Kelley-Johnson, son of Lincoln High head coach Dominique Kelley-Johnson, tries to keep the attention of the players while the Links stretch before their game Saturday at Lincoln High.
Governor Jim Pillen (center) announces the appointment of former governor Pete Ricketts to Nebraska's open senate seat, during an announcement on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2023, at Nebraska State Capitol in Lincoln. The vacancy, left open by the departure of Ben Sasse, has been expected to go to Ricketts after his depurate from the governorship last year.
Oscar and Yenifer Contreras, (left to right) both family workers, enjoy some of the food they made before lunch on Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2023, at Restaurante & Bar Sabor Latino in Lincoln.
Parker Moll braves a mix of snow and rain to clear the driveway outside his family's home on Wednesday.
Ohio State's Zed Key (left) lays the ball into the basket off of the backboard against Nebraska's Derrick Walker on Wednesday at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Nebraska's Sam Griesel (right) embraces teammate Keisei Tominaga after defeating Ohio State on Wednesday at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Nebraska's Isabelle Bourne (left) is blocked at the rim by Maryland's Gia Cooke on Sunday at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Lincoln Pius X's Jackson Kessler (middle, bottom) celebrates after hitting a three-point shot against Lincoln Southwest on Thursday at Pius X High School.
Nebraska's Allie Gard completes a back hand spring during her routine on the balance beam during their duel against Maryland on Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, at the Devaney Sports Center.
Lincoln Pius X's Nate Schauer (left) and Treyson Anderson celebrate after defeating Omaha Skutt on Tuesday at Pius X High School.
Nebraska's Denim Dawson bites a towel after the Huskers lost to Northwestern on Wednesday at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Leona Nissen (left) and Mackenzie Derowitsch chat during some one-on-one mentorship time at Lincoln Lutheran on Thursday. The 6-12 school has implemented a new mentor program called Warrior Walk that pairs a middle school student with a high school counterpart.
April and Stormi Mrsny hurtle down the hill on their sled while followed by their dog, Penni, on Monday at Pioneers Park. Chilly temperatures are in the forecast this week ahead of an Arctic air mass that could arrive by the weekend.
Gov. Jim Pillen delivers his State of the State address on Wednesday at the Capitol in Lincoln.
Lincoln High School senior Kristie Trinh was recently selected for the prestigious United States Senate Youth Program.
John Lee (left), an opponent of LB77, open carries his great-great grandfather's musket outside a Judiciary Committee hearing on Thursday at the Capitol. "This is the only arms that they knew of when they were writing the Constitution," Lee said. LB77 would remove a requirement that gun owners obtain a permit to be able to carry a concealed weapon.
Husker History Highlights - March 23, 2023
Luke Mullin
Husker football/baseball reporter
An Omaha native and University of Nebraska-Lincoln graduate, Luke reports on Nebraska football and baseball. Luke is in his fourth year with the Journal Star and previously covered prep sports.
