Nebraska vs. Purdue, 11.02.2019

Nebraska football head coach Scott Frost looks on after an unsuccessful third down near the end zone during the second half against Purdue on Saturday at Ross-Ade Stadium. 

After a third straight loss Saturday against Purdue and with its record sitting at 4-5 and an off week upon it, Nebraska must win two of its final three games in order to qualify for a bowl game. 

Those three: home against Wisconsin (6-2, 3-2) on Nov. 16, at Maryland (3-6, 1-5) on Nov. 23 and home against Iowa (6-2, 3-2) on Nov. 29. 

So, just how likely is it to win two of three, considering the Cornhuskers will be home underdogs in their two remaining games and have won exactly one road game in the past two seasons? 

A user (Florida Cup) took ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly's SP+ analytics and applied a win expectancy model to every team in college football. It's an interesting and thought-provoking rabbit hole to explore, whether you're interested in the Huskers, Ohio State -- the Buckeyes are 44-point home favorites against Maryland this weekend and then play Rutgers -- or want to see just how made the winner of LSU and Alabama has it after Saturday. 

The win expectancy spit out by Connelly's data and this application peg NU's chances of beating its final three opponents like this: Wisconsin 16.2%, Maryland 52.3% and Iowa 29.2%. 

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Nebraska's got four remaining possible outcomes for the season in terms of wins, and the model breaks them down like this: 

Four wins: 28.3% 

Five wins: 48.2% 

Six wins: 21.1% 

Seven wins: 2.5% 

All told, this particular model shows the Huskers with a slightly worse than 1-in-4 chance of hitting the six-win mark and pegs the program's expected win total at 4.977. 

Contact the writer at pgabriel@journalstar.com or 402-473-7439. On Twitter @HuskerExtraPG.


Sports writer

Parker joined the Journal Star as the University of Nebraska football beat writer in August 2017. He previously covered Montana State athletics for the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 2012.

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