Exclusive: Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer leads Dan Osborn by 7.5 points in new poll

With mere days to go before Tuesday's election, Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer's lead over independent challenger Dan Osborn is as wide as it has been since July, according to a new poll commissioned by Fischer's campaign that suggests the Republican incumbent has shored up support in her closer-than-expected bid for reelection.

Fischer is now leading Osborn by 7.5%, according to the survey of 605 voters conducted by Torchlight Strategies last weekend and shared exclusively with the Journal Star on Friday.

The poll — which shows Fischer leading Osborn 50.6% to 43.1% with a 4% margin of error — closely mirrors the findings of an independent poll commissioned by The Economist last week that showed the 73-year-old former state lawmaker leading Osborn by 7 points.

"Our latest numbers confirm other recent nonpartisan polling — Dan Osborn will lose this race," Derek Oden, Fischer's campaign manager, told the Journal Star. "He’s losing because Nebraskans know he isn’t being honest about who he is and what he represents. He’s a left-wing radical who’s voting for Kamala Harris."

Osborn, a 49-year-old industrial mechanic and U.S. Navy veteran, has not publicly indicated who he is voting for president.

But both polls suggest the former union leader, whose working class background and populist message has proved surprisingly resonant as he seeks to unseat the GOP incumbent in a deeply conservative state, has lost at least some momentum in the race's waning days.

The polling analysis website 538 still notches the Fischer-Osborn matchup as among the closest Senate races in the country. And a poll commissioned by Osborn's campaign this week showed him tied with Fischer at 47%.

"Despite the frantic last minute attempts to smear him, Dan has the momentum in this extremely close race," a spokesman for Osborn's campaign said. "Nebraskans are tired of Sen. Fischer's self-serving politics and ready to elect a true independent who puts the people of his state first."

Still, the latest polls in the race have largely skewed toward Fischer after independent and Osborn-funded polls earlier this month had consistently shown him leading Fischer by margins as high as 6 points.

More recent polls that have shown Osborn in a dead heat with Fischer — including his campaign's internal poll released Thursday and a poll from The New York Times and Siena College earlier this week that showed Fischer leading by 2% — have included a smaller share of voters who backed former President Donald Trump in 2020 than the state's actual electorate.

Fifty-three percent of Nebraska voters surveyed in Osborn's latest internal poll backed Trump in 2020, while 54% of those surveyed in the New York Times poll did so. But Trump won 58.22% of the vote in Nebraska four years ago, suggesting both polls underrepresent Trump supporters.

Fischer, who has acknowledged she is in a closer race than she expected to be, has combatted Osborn's rise in part by turning to Trump, her party's three-time presidential nominee who has endorsed Fischer and called Osborn "a Democrat in disguise" in a recent Fischer campaign ad shot from inside Trump's private plane.

After Fischer earned more votes than any other candidate in May's primary, including Trump, the former president has consistently outpaced Fischer in recent polls in Nebraska, where Republican voters outnumber Democrats by more than 280,000.

Fischer's internal poll released Friday shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 56% to 39%. Osborn's internal poll this week showed Trump leading Harris 57% to 39%.

Osborn, who is trying to become the first non-Republican elected to the Senate in Nebraska since 2006, has also tried to tap into Trump's continued popularity in the state.

In a new Osborn television ad, Trump voters backing Osborn called Fischer "another creature of the D.C. swamp" who has “more in common with Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump."

An upset win for Osborn could prevent Republicans from capturing a majority in the Senate, where the GOP, now at a two-seat disadvantage in the body, is expected to flip Democratic seats in West Virginia and Montana. There are also competitive Senate races in a handful of other states, including Wisconsin and Ohio.