Nebraska drought expected to ease over the next few months

A wet winter hasn't made much of a dent in Nebraska's drought so far, but relief could be on the way over the next few months.

According to the latest drought monitor from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 98.6% of the state remains in at least a moderate drought, while 78.6% remains in severe drought, including Lincoln and nearly all of Lancaster County.

That's slightly better than conditions from three months ago, but things should improve through the spring and summer if a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is correct.

The organization is forecasting a likely improvement in the drought across much of the central U.S., including Nebraska. A map it released Thursday as part of its spring outlook shows drought improving over the entire state and even ending in some areas, including parts of Southeast Nebraska.

"We do expect improving drought conditions throughout the spring season across Nebraska," said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Pugh said that forecast is based on "increasingly wet climatology" as the state enters what is traditionally its wettest period.

The NOAA is even predicting that areas in Southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River could see minor flooding this spring, even though the U.S. Army Corps. of Engineers earlier this month forecast runoff feeding the river north of Sioux City, Iowa, will only be 84% of average.

Nebraska just had its fifth-wettest winter on record, which provided some relief but not a lot, said Martha Durr, the state's climatologist, who noted that only about 8% of annual precipitation falls during the winter months.

"In terms of benefit, maximum potential infiltration of snowmelt won’t occur on frozen soils," Durr said in an email. "However, it is measurably helpful in a hydrologic sense and for precipitation that arrived on thawed soils. In fact, we’ve seen large-scale categorical changes in drought for a good portion of Nebraska over the winter."

Some areas of the state that were experiencing the worst drought saw the biggest improvement.

For example, three months ago much of southwest Nebraska was in exceptional drought, the worst category. But thanks to some big snow events, exceptional drought conditions have totally disappeared, although most of the area is still in extreme drought.

The same thing happened in north-central Nebraska, where areas of exceptional drought disappeared from Cherry, Brown and Rock counties. Also, though there is still exceptional drought in northeast Nebraska, the size of the area has shrunk.

Lincoln has received slightly higher-than-normal precipitation through the first 2½ months of the year, but its level of drought is largely unchanged from where it was three months ago.

The NOAA is predicting equal chances of wetter or drier conditions in Nebraska this spring, and equal chances that it could be warmer or cooler.

Part of the reason for the uncertainty is the end of La Nina, which occurs when ocean temperatures are cooler than normal and rainfall is reduced in the eastern to central Pacific Ocean.

Conditions are expected to be neutral throughout the spring and summer, with the NOAA predicting a good chance -- 60% -- of the formation of El Nino conditions in the fall and winter. El Nino brings warmer water to the eastern Pacific Ocean, particularly to the U.S. West Coast, which can lead to warmer and drier conditions in the northern half of the country.

Durr said it's difficult to predict how a shift to El Nino will affect Nebraska since it likely won't happen until the fall.

In the short term, however, she said she agrees that Nebraska is likely to see relief from the drought.

"The severity of drought that Nebraska is currently experiencing happens about every 10 years. We have been in a moisture deficit for the past three years after coming off a very wet year in 2019," she said. "If the past is any indicator going forward, I would expect overall improvements in drought conditions for much of the state. It may not be enough to completely make up the moisture deficits, but hopefully we will be in a better position this year compared to the previous three."