Those measures — two of which are backed by Gov. Pete Ricketts — would more than double the state's projected shortfall if coupled with the fiscal impacts of 214 bills passed or given initial approval by the Legislature this year.

The outlook is based on an analysis by OpenSky Policy Institute, a Lincoln-based think tank that opposes the governor's property tax plan.

Ricketts has pledged to cover the costs of his plan in the biennial budget he will propose to lawmakers next year. 

"The governor is aware of the out-year impacts because he will be here to manage the budget and hold the line on growth in state government," said Ricketts spokesman Taylor Gage.

In addition, the governor's office noted the projections used by OpenSky do not reflect an anticipated $100 million injection from a handful of cash funds next budget cycle. They also assume budget growth of 4.1 percent each year, while Ricketts has pushed to hold growth at a lower level

Opponents fear enacting the governor's plan this year could require cutting services or withdrawing from the state's rainy day fund in the future.

"It's dangerous to make the decision now," said former state Sen. John Harms of Scottsbluff, who spent eight years on the Legislature's budget-building Appropriations Committee and now serves on OpenSky's board of directors.

Agriculture, which helped ease the state's budget crunch during the Great Recession, is facing rough years in the near future which could force the state to dip into its rainy day fund, also called the cash reserve, Harms said.

"I think you have to prepare yourself for that, and if you get very far into that reserve, you'll be sorry for that when the time comes."

The Legislature is expected to debate the education and property tax bills next week. 

Those three measures could cost the state a combined $110 million over the next three years, based on the latest financial information available. 

Two of the bills (LB958 and LB959) constitute the governor's tax plan. They attempt to ease property taxpayers' role in funding local governments by increasing direct credits for agricultural landowners, boosting state aid to many rural school districts and tightening some spending restrictions on community colleges and K-12 schools.

The third measure (LB1067) would eliminate the Omaha-area Learning Community's common levy and possibly trigger extra state funding for high-poverty school districts.

Ricketts has supported abolishing the Learning Community but has not taken a position on LB1067.

The issues are separate, but the Learning Community bill appeals more to urban lawmakers while the other measures are more rural-focused.

"In that regard they're intermixed," said Omaha Sen. Burke Harr, a member of the Revenue Committee. "I think we have to be very careful not to make this an urban-rural split. If it does become that, they both fail."

Urban conservatives eager for income tax cuts might seek to couple changes of their own with the governor's bills, as well, which could result in further impacts to the state's budget outlook.

Lawmakers have yet to enact any measures this year that have immediate, significant fiscal implications. But other bills that have received first- or second-round approval and await final passage would boost state spending by an estimated $24 million come next biennium, according to legislative data.

Omaha Sen. Heath Mello, chairman of the Appropriations Committee, said lawmakers must keep future uncertainty in mind as they consider this year's remaining bills.

For example, state spending on public schools — held down in recent years because of high agricultural land valuations — is expected to climb by an average of 5 percent each year during the next two-year budget cycle. 

That could complicate Ricketts' goal of keeping the state's overall budget growth lower each of those years.

"I think of anything we look at ... that (school spending) more than anything else drives projected spending next biennium," Mello said.