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State tax forecast makes budget debate more difficult

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Nebraska's economic forecasting board Wednesday revised the state's projections for tax collections over three years downward about $55 million. 

It means the Legislature, in the middle of debate on its budget bills, will have to come up with about $50 million more to balance its budget. 

Appropriations Committee Chairman John Stinner wasn't surprised, and had even predicted the Nebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board might lower the forecast by that amount.

"That's not a disaster, but it's still another hurdle," Stinner said. 

The committee will huddle and talk about what to do next, he said. 

A bill he introduced would allow, if passed, the Legislature to lower the minimum reserve in the budget required by state law to 2 percent. That might be an option to gain the extra money needed to balance the budget, he said. 

If enough senators don't like that option, he said, they could come up with more cuts or borrow from the state's rainy day fund. 

Gov. Pete Ricketts said it's clear additional spending cuts are required. 

The Department of Revenue presented an estimate showing tax receipts are down $65 million this month compared with the previous forecast.

"With the forecasting board's $55 million downward revision for a three-year period, I encourage the Legislature to make the necessary cuts to spending," Ricketts said.

The nine-member forecasting board had some rare close votes on a number of the decisions it made in setting the various tax rates over the three years, several of them 5-4. The current fiscal year's forecast went down $15 million, and each of the two coming fiscal years declined $20 million apiece. 

Consistently, board members from eastern Nebraska had a more-optimistic outlook for the coming years than those from more rural areas. 

Steven Seline, vice chairman of Waitt Media in Omaha and a member of the board, and Leslie Anderson, president and chief executive officer of the Bank of Bennington, both said they were more confident about the state's economy than some of their fellow committee members. 

Seline has radio stations in Fremont and Blair and said he talks to people across the state. There is business growth going on in places other than Omaha, he said. A Costco poultry plant is being built in Fremont that will have an impact on chicken farming statewide, he said. 

Housing prices are going up, including Kearney. 

"There's good things happening here," he said. 

But Fred Lockwood of Scottsbluff said things are more challenging in areas of western Nebraska. Tax collections are flat and farm revenues decreasing.

Others said property tax reform is needed in rural areas. 

After the forecasting board revised its projected tax collections, OpenSky Policy Institute Executive Director Renee Fry said the forecast underscores how irresponsible it is to be discussing further revenue reductions with a growing budget shortfall that has already forced cuts to higher education and health and human services. 

"... We hope lawmakers will look at freezing or reversing special tax breaks that are reducing revenue by hundreds of millions of dollars each year," Fry said. 

Reach the writer at 402-473-7228 or jyoung@journalstar.com

On Twitter @LJSLegislature.

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