People who use natural gas to heat their homes should prepare for sticker shock this winter.
Black Hills Energy said it's expecting an average 58% increase this winter in the price it pays for natural gas. That forecast is based on an analysis of typical winter weather, market conditions and current natural gas price forecasts.
Customer bills could be higher or lower based on how much gas they actually use. The 58% estimate is based on the actual cost of natural gas, which Black Hills passes on to customers.
That's higher than the forecast last month from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which predicted a 30% increase nationally and a 45% increase in the Midwest.
Most of that increase is because of higher prices for natural gas this year compared with last year, although experts also expect households to use slightly more natural gas this winter.
The forecast increase comes on top of a surcharge the more than 300,000 Nebraska customers of Black Hills already are paying because of February's extreme cold snap that sent natural gas prices soaring.
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Black Hills started levying the surcharge in July to recoup $86.5 million in additional costs related to the cold-weather event. The surcharge costs the average residential customer about $10 a month and is scheduled to last for three years.
People who signed up last year for Black Hills' annual price option, which allows customers to lock in the price of natural gas for the winter heating season, were exempt from the surcharge through the end of October, and the roughly 8,000 who signed up for the program this year will avoid paying the forecast higher natural gas prices.
Photos: Record cold in Lincoln
Frost

Frost coats a window as the sun rises on Tuesday.
Frigid Temperatures, 2.16

LINCOLN, NEB. - 02/16/2021 - A firefighter exists a hazmat truck as he responds to a chlorine gas leak due to a broken pipe at the ADM plant at 540 South St., Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021. JUSTIN WAN, Journal Star
Frigid Temperatures, 2.16

LINCOLN, NEB. - 02/16/2021 - Lincoln Fire & Rescue responds to a chlorine gas leak due to a broken pipe at the ADM plant at 540 South St., Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021. JUSTIN WAN, Journal Star
Cold weather

Smoke curls from a chimney in central Lincoln on Feb. 15.
Frigid Temperatures, 2.16

Lincoln Fire & Rescue responds to a chlorine gas leak due to a broken pipe at the ADM plant at 540 South St., Tuesday.
Frigid Temperatures, 2.16

Lincoln Fire & Rescue responds to a chlorine gas leak due to a broken pipe at the ADM plant at 540 South St. on Tuesday.
Frigid Temperatures, 2.16

Henry Reimer helps his girlfriend Brenna Grochala jump-start her car in the frigid cold Tuesday.
Frigid Temperatures, 2.16

Brenna Grochala walks next to a cloud of exhaust after her boyfriend was able to start her car Tuesday.
Top Journal Star photos for February

With below-zero wind chills in the air, a squirrel leaps from one snow bank to another on Tuesday at Holmes Lake Park.
Holmes Lake Feature, 2.9

With below-zero wind chills in the air, a lone bluejay perches on a branch on Tuesday at Holmes Lake Park.
Reach the writer at 402-473-2647 or molberding@journalstar.com.
On Twitter @LincolnBizBuzz.