It's a safe bet that neither Missouri nor Nebraska will win the Big 12 championship this season. If either outfit does emerge on top, it will have bucked a trend that tells us superlative defen
Posted: Saturday, October 6, 2007 7:00 pm
Start with the offenses. When you're talking Nebraska and Missouri football, you're talking offense. Bill Callahan's potent West Coast system and Gary Pinkel's frenetic no-huddle spread attack.
Then move to the quarterbacks. Sam Keller has become the face of the 2007 Huskers, the team's most reliable weapon. He's a skilled player and Grade-A leader. The same goes for the Tigers' Chase Daniel.
Nebraska and Missouri fans will watch Keller and Daniel duel Saturday night in Columbia, Mo. The scoreboard might explode. The teams may well combine for 1,000 yards — in part because neither squad plays much defense.
Which is why it's a safe bet that neither team will win the Big 12 championship this season. If either outfit does emerge on top, it will have bucked a trend that tells us superlative defense is essentially a prerequisite for capturing Big 12 titles — more so than prolific offense.
Of the 11 Big 12 champions crowned since the league's formation in 1996, only two had defenses that ranked outside the top 16 nationally in terms of yards allowed — Colorado in 2001 (44th) and Texas in 1996 (67th).
Colorado in 2001 was proficient in one of the other key areas typical of championship teams — the Buffaloes ran the heck out of the ball. As for the 1996 Texas squad, Priest Holmes and Ricky Williams ring a bell? How about James Brown, who rolled left and fired a fourth-and-inches pass that helped produce one of the biggest upsets of the year.
It was an upset because the Longhorns didn't play much defense in those days (the Husker defense, led by Grant Wistrom and Jason Peter, ranked seventh nationally in 1996).
Nebraska (4-1, 1-0 Big 12) currently ranks 77th nationally in total defense, Missouri (4-0, 0-0), 93rd. With due respect to well-designed offenses and strong-armed gunslingers, history shows defense matters most in Big 12 country.
League champion Oklahoma last season ranked 16th in total defense, 40th in total offense. Nebraska won the title in 1999 with a defense that ranked fourth (Mike Brown, Ralph Brown, Steve Warren, Carlos Polk), and a 44th-ranked offense.
Show me a team with fire-snorting defenders and a well-defined overall identity, and you're showing me two of the leading indicators of championship material.
Nebraska and Missouri will win their share of games this season. But Kansas State is looking more and more like the team to beat in the North Division. And please don't tell me I'm putting too much stock in one upset.
Kansas State's stock is rising because it ranks 13th nationally in total defense and 11th defending the run. The Wildcats attack with a hard-hitting defense with plenty of speed. What's more, Ron Prince has a focused and definitive plan. He wants to build his team on defense and special teams.
"We understand exactly how we want to recruit and how we want to play," the K-State second-year coach told reporters after his team's 41-21 victory Saturday at then-No. 7 Texas.
Prince's haughty nature can be unappealing. But his resolute manner in following the blueprint for his program is worth noting.
Nebraska's blueprint? The Huskers will continue to lean hard on Keller and a talented and veteran band of wide receivers. I badly overestimated the strength of the defense.
Nebraska's identity? Tuesday, I asked Callahan if he sees one forming in his team. He essentially answered the question without answering it, a mark of a wise and veteran head coach. Or maybe he's just not sure at the moment.
"I think what's important right now is our rate of improvement relative to everyone else's," he said. "If we can maintain that standard of improvement week in and week out, that's all I'm looking for."
Callahan's pat answer for almost any question that comes down the pike: We'll do whatever it takes to win.
Someday, that might include playing some stingy defense, like Kansas State this season, and Colorado (No. 14 in total defense), and Kansas (No. 3, but against opponents with a combined record of 4-15), and Oklahoma (No. 6).
Big 12 history tells us those are the teams most likely to end up playing Dec. 1 in San Antonio.
Reach Steven M. Sipple at 473-7440 or ssipple@journalstar.com.