Reducing the flow of water on the Niobrara River could result in a loss of $471,000 to $695,000 a year over the next decade.

That's one of the findings in an almost-finished report compiled by Steve Shultz, an economics professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.

Shultz studied the economic and social values of recreational floating on a 76-mile federally protected stretch of the Niobrara downstream from Valentine in north-central Nebraska.

His goal was to generate "objective and accurate" data for the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, which is working on an instream flow application for the Niobrara to protect minimum flows for fish, wildlife and recreation.

Shultz, who was hired by Game and Parks to conduct the study, looked only at recreational floating and not such economic benefits as agriculture, fishing and environmental conservation. Most of his findings were based on mail-in and windshield surveys done in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

Many farmers and ranchers in the Niobrara valley oppose instream flow rights for the river. They claim it would waste water by preventing its future use for irrigation and industrial development. They also argue it's unnecessary because all rights to the Niobrara's water have been assigned.

The Game and Parks Commission directed its staff to pursue an instream flow right for the Niobrara River in May 2006. Gene Zuerlein, assistant fisheries division administrator, said the state has 12,371 miles of fishable streams but so far has protected 285 miles, or 2 percent.

Here are some highlights from Shultz's study, which was funded by the Nebraska Environmental Trust.

* In 2008, floaters spent an average of $234 each per day getting to and floating on the Niobrara in tubes, kayaks or canoes. The total economic impact for the year was $10.9 million.

* If floating increased at the historic annual growth rate in visitation of 2.3 percent per year over the next decade (2009-18), the economic impact would average $10.5 million per year in 2008 dollars.

* And if it increased by 8.5 percent - as it has in the past three years - the economic impact over the next decade would be $14.6 million per year.

* At least 32 percent of Nebraskans are familiar with the river, 15 percent have floated it, 23 percent have participated in recreational activities there and 40 percent know of friends or family who have.

* Last year, about 45,500 people floated the scenic stretch of the river downstream from Valentine, according to the National Park Service.

* 23 percent of them said low flows on the scenic river were a primary concern or threat, while 11 percent were concerned with litter and potential water quality issues.

* 7 percent of floaters felt low flows might limit or reduce future visits, while 35 percent said they consider flow levels while planning trips; 66 percent check flows in advance.

Shultz said the survey also looked at comparable rivers in Nebraska that would offer some of the same recreational opportunities. It found none.

"There is no substitute for the Niobrara as it currently is," he told the two dozen people who showed up to hear the report at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln on Monday afternoon.

Shultz said the Niobrara on a typical summer Saturday represents a cross-section of the state.

"If you want to see a mixture of Nebraskans in any one place, this is it," he said.

He told the audience he personally believes the 8.5 percent annual growth in floaters is realistic because right now there is a healthy mix of repeat and first-time visitors, which is unusual for rivers in other states. Most of the visitors are from Lincoln and Omaha.

Bruce Kennedy of Malcolm, speaking for the Nebraska Wildlife Federation, thanked Game and Parks for conducting the study.

"We hope they go ahead and make an application to protect the flows in the Niobrara," Kennedy said during a question-and-answer session.

Shultz said his findings won't solve the debate, but they are useful. He said the study is designed so additional data in coming years can be plugged in and result in more useful and up-to-date information.

The draft study should be posted Tuesday at http://unorealestate.org/. Shultz said comments are welcome.

Contact Algis J. Laukaitis at 473-7243 or alaukaitis@journalstar.com.