Better weather could boost the harvesting pace and brighten the mood of beleaguered corn and soybean producers this week, but it's not happening soon enough to solve the serious problems that go with so much grain still in the field in November.
Nebraska farmers who feel the calendar forcing them to harvest unusually soggy corn, for example, can expect to pay hefty fees at grain elevators for drying costs.
Meanwhile, some of the 100-car unit trains that normally would be loaded with soybeans and on their way to export docks on a 24-hour basis are languishing at load-out points because of the slow flow of soybeans.
And concerns are growing, because of cool, wet conditions, that some portion of the corn crop in the Midwest may have problems with vomitoxin - so named because of the effect it can have on hogs that eat it.
Ithaca farmer Bob Bartek is anxious for some of that better weather because 75 percent of his corn is still in winter's path. The mud and all the rest he'd be happy to do without.
"It's really something else, I can tell you that," Bartek said Monday as clouds blocked the sun and rain sprinkled some areas.
The Lincoln forecast for the rest of the week does not mention rain and has highs ranging from the mid-50s to near 70.
The recent standard for comparison on the portion of corn harvest completed had been 1982. Scott Keller with the National Agricultural Statistics Service in Lincoln moved that benchmark back another 15 years this week, based on Sunday conditions.
"We had to go back to 1967 to find anything later than this," he said Monday.
That translates to 18 percent of corn done so far this year versus an average of 62 percent.
"We're a full month behind where we normally should have been around the first of October," Keller said.
The seriousness of the vomitoxin worry is hard to gauge.
Mark Fulmer, head of grain testing operations at the Lincoln Inspection Service, said not many of his customers have requested tests for the fungus-caused micotoxin so far.
"It's still a poisonous mold," Fulmer said, "and at certain levels, it can be a problem. It's just that it's a very uncommon problem in this area. And that's why we have not had many (test) requests for it."
Some of the corn tested has shown some fungus presence, he said.
Might this very gray weather late in the growing season affect the vomitoxin outlook?
"I'd say yes," Fulmer replied.
Alison Robertson, a plant pathologist at Iowa State University, offered some scientific perspective.
"Normally, when it's a season like we're having - cool, wet and a delayed harvest - vomitoxin can be a problem," Robertson said.
Checking done so far in Iowa has been confined to hail-damaged areas, where ear rot is a step in the fungus progression. Results of more testing on relatively hail-free acres are pending.
Hogs tend to be "very sensitive" to higher levels of vomitoxin, Robertson said. "Pigs can actually tell, so they will actually stop eating."
Meat from hogs that do ingest vomitoxin-contaminated corn is not affected, she added.
Saunders County farmer Bartek acknowledged that "some guys are having problems with this" on the grain side.
But his observations from the front lines of harvest might signal a bigger impact as producers try to sell corn to elevators at moisture levels far above those deemed safe for long-term storage.
In his experience, penalties graduate upward as moisture tests go past 20 percent.
To calculate the dockage fee at 23 percent moisture, for example, "you can actually take 18.5 percent times the price of corn."
Keith Glewen, a University of Nebraska agricultural Extension agent in Saunders County, said those possibilities have to be measured against the increasing risk of winter weather.
"The days keep getting shorter," Glewen said. "The window for harvest keeps getting narrower every day."
While prospects for record corn production represent good news, there's also a down side to the glut of bushels coming out of fields that need artificial drying either on the farm or at purchase points.
"I think we should be very concerned," Glewen said, "because not only are there a lot of acres yet to harvest, there's a tremendous amount of bushels to deal with."
Kelly Brunkhorst of the Nebraska Corn Board said it seems inevitable that "some of that corn is going to have to go to town" because its volume is estimated at 1.5 billion bushels and on-farm storage is closer to 1 billion.
"No doubt it's been a tough year," Brunkhorst said. "I think the big positive we have to look at is the forecast for this week and into next week. We're looking at some very good weather."
Reach Art Hovey at 473-7223 or at ahovey@journalstar.com.
Posted in Local on Tuesday, November 3, 2009 12:20 am Updated: 9:40 pm. | Tags: Agriculture, Weather
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