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Crime in Lincoln falls first half of 2008

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BY LORI PILGER / Lincoln Journal Star

Thursday, Jul 31, 2008 - 07:21:02 pm CDT

Lincoln looks to be on track for a record-setting drop in crime in 2008.

Overall for the first six months of the year, crimes reported to police fell by 19 percent.

When adjusted to account for a change last fall in how police take reports of gas station drive-offs, crime still was down 13 percent.

Story Photo
Police Chief Tom Casady

“A safe city is getting even safer, and we’ve all done this together,” Mayor Chris Beutler said Thursday at a press conference releasing the numbers.

Calling the drop an “enormous success,” he credited Lincoln police for working smarter and Lincoln residents for being their eyes and ears.

He also gave credit to collaborative efforts, like the Stronger Safe Neighborhoods initiative, for addressing the root causes of crime, turning neighborhoods around and protecting families.

“Together we have sent a strong message to criminals. We will fight back and we will be successful,” Beutler said.

Police Chief Tom Casady, who is known to keep a close eye on statistics, usually cautions against taking too much from short-term trends. But, he said, what he’s seen the first six months of 2008 is pretty hard to ignore.

“I’ve never really seen anything like this during my years,” he said.

Since 1985, the greatest drop in crime was 9.6 percent in 1993.

The drop so far in 2008 is twice that. But Casady points out there should be an asterisk next to the 19.4 percent decrease, to account for a change last year that resulted in police taking 400 fewer gas drive-off reports.

(Now police only take those reports if there are vehicle and suspect descriptions.)

Factoring them out, Casady said crime still dropped 13.4 percent.

In the first six months of the year, police took 145 fewer burglary, 1,103 fewer theft, 59 fewer assault and four fewer auto thefts reports than the same time in 2007.

There were two more rapes and 23 more robberies reported than the previous year.

Casady said the robberies, especially, have his attention.

As for the overall trend, he said it would be pretty hard to offset by the end of the year, considering seven months are down and July pretty much followed the trend.

But the reason behind the drop has him scratching his head.

“You’re going to ask me, I’m sure, ‘why.’ And the short answer is ‘not sure,’” he said.

The long answer?

Casady said it’s attributable to a lot of things: good police work, strategic use of police resources, great partnerships with the community and targeted efforts.

And he said many factors other than what police do or don’t do can factor in. Like weather, for instance. Or even gas prices.

But it’s a hard trend to ignore, he said.

It follows a larger trend. Casady said the city’s crime rate has been on the slide since 1991.

“We hope to keep it heading in a good direction through the remainder of 2008,” he said.

Beutler said the city rightly is celebrating success with the numbers. In a time when the city budget is badly constrained, police still were able to make an impact on crime by focusing strategically on the problems, he said.

Beutler said it’s time to reaffirm a commitment to the Stronger Safe Neighborhoods initiative, a block by block approach to solving the problems that contribute to crime.

“We have put the tools into place that we need to succeed,” he said.

Reach Lori Pilger at 473-7237 or lpilger@journalstar.com.


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HUsker in VA wrote on July 31, 2008 9:59 am:
" Hats off to the LPD!!!! As well as for all the behind the scene personnel making this happen for Lincoln. "

Biz Robbery wrote on July 31, 2008 10:09 am:
" Reported rates and actual rates are often quite different. How about the business robbery rate, since the reporting rate of those is about 100%. Are they up, down, or stable? "

Tom Casady wrote on July 31, 2008 10:34 am:
" BizRobbery: That is a shrewd observation. You'll find the data here:

http://lpd304.blogspot.com/2008/06/robbery-trends.html "

Kent wrote on July 31, 2008 11:04 am:
" It is good to see some positive news about crime. I seriously thought with all the pub muggings, thefts, assaults, etc have been getting lately you'd think it was getting worse. I know people of course have the right to know of the crimes going around, it is too bad that it makes such good news (along with other bad things) that it floods the papers.

Hats off to the LPD. "

mitchy_v wrote on July 31, 2008 11:31 am:
" Crime is down due to gas prices. Criminals can't afford to your houses now. "

Late ODay wrote on July 31, 2008 11:38 am:
" "The crime statistics are compiled by the Lincoln Police Department ... " 'Nuf said. I'm willing to believe crime overall might be down -- but I seriously doubt that the petty and violent crimes most of us are likely to encounter are. Heck, in my neighborhood, you don't even take your trash out after dark. I think I'd want to see the report broken down a bit by a neutral third party. I keep recalling Disraeli's comment: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” "

Ron wrote on July 31, 2008 11:41 am:
" maybe overall crime rate has fallen due to drive-offs declining etc. but violent crime such as robberies and assaults seem to be up "

Dak wrote on July 31, 2008 11:47 am:
" Crime may be down, but can they solve hit and run accidents? Wait, isn't that a crime too? "

Hello wrote on July 31, 2008 12:01 pm:
" Crime is down because the Conceal Carry Law is now in effect. Criminals don't have the easy targets they used to have. They're not sure who's carrying and who is not. But you won't catch Chief Casady swallowing his pride and admitting that. "

David wrote on July 31, 2008 12:02 pm:
" As a 2007 year graduate of the LPD Citizens Academy I can say without a doubt that LPD is doing a great job given thier staffing & financial struggles. You cannot be every where at once and see every crime but Tom's team get the job done with professionalism.


Keep up the good work Team "

Tom Casady wrote on July 31, 2008 12:55 pm:
" Hello:

Violent crime increased in the year after CC was enacted in Nebraska, and the decrease in overall crime started way back in 2001. There is no evidence that concealed carry had anything to do with increases or decreases, and I think it is completely off-base to assert either of those--but if you are going to claim credit for the decrease in the first half of this year, you will have to accept blame for the increase last year. You'll also have to explain why the one crime that is up significantly--robbery--is exactly the one involved in the scenario you describe: "They're not sure who's carrying and who is not". You can't just cherry pick the data when it meets your agenda. "

Outside the Box wrote on July 31, 2008 2:36 pm:
" I'm quite impressed by Chief Casady's responses and follow up in this string. It's nice to have further explanation and to have some of the ignorant claims refuted by someone with knowledge and experience.

Keep up the good work Chief! "

J wrote on July 31, 2008 2:56 pm:
" How's that CC law doing in Omaha? There seems to be shootings every night. Just because Lincoln is a safe place to live always, doesn't mean that the CC law is doing anything. Look to North Omaha if you want to see any effect of the law. "

Rick wrote on July 31, 2008 6:32 pm:
" It sounds like Tom is getting the job done with the present force that he has, so why is he asking for an increase? Does he just want to pad his budget? "

officer wrote on July 31, 2008 7:12 pm:
" Rick, I missed the part of the story where the chief is asking for more cops? Do you have a magic computer that allows you to read between the lines or were you at the press conference and heard something that nobody else did? Perhaps the chief has mentioned that LPD needs more cops because currently the department is way understaffed and doesn't want to get somebody hurt. Perhaps the Lincoln police department actually does hire the finest that is able to get the job done with very few officers. "

whatever wrote on July 31, 2008 9:12 pm:
" I suspect the "decline" in the rate of "crime" has more to do with a overloaded judicial system and a overcrowded jail/prison system. And has been pointed out "rate of crime" has little to do with "actual crime". Keep in mind that LPD is woefully understaffed for a city of it's size. "

Bigal wrote on August 1, 2008 6:54 am:
" The offenders commiting the robbery's and assaults are not the citizen's
with LEGAL concealed carry permits. They would carry any time, and commit
a crime with or without a permit. In fact the person most likely to live this life style would'nt qualify for a permit.
Permit holders are for the very most part LAW ABIDING CITIZENS.
They have passed FBI back ground checks Local police checks and safe weapons course. I am proud to say I qualify to carry and do. "

no data manipulation wrote on August 1, 2008 10:16 am:
" If Casady was going to manipulate the data in his favor to get more cops then he would have made it look like crime went up significantly. Crime going down makes it look like the budget cuts are not hurting the police department and makes the mayor look good.

I don't think the safer neighborhood stuff in SW Lincoln had much to do with this drop in crime. It hasn't been going on long enough to make a difference yet. I think it will cause crime to go down even more. More than likely the right people have been put in jail and aren't out committing lots of the crimes. It is a known fact that 1% of the criminals commit 80% of the crime. Therefore, if the right 1% are in jail then crime goes down. LPD has been putting the right people in jail. "

Dagny wrote on August 1, 2008 2:32 pm:
" Kudos to LPD!

Tongue-in-cheek question: Does the lady who had her $2000 car stolen twice last weekend count as 1 auto theft or 2? ha! "