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Lincoln may reach quarter-million mark in coming year

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By KENDRA WALTKE / Lincoln Journal Star

Thursday, Jul 10, 2008 - 08:27:32 am CDT

Lincoln’s population will likely pass the 250,000 mark within the next year.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s July  2007 city and town population estimates, released Thursday, put the city at 248,744.

And over the past few years, Lincoln has averaged a 3,000-person annual gain, including an estimated 3,386 the past year, said David Drozd, a researcher at the University of Nebraska at Omaha's Center for Public Affairs.

Story Photo
Aerial photo of downtown Lincoln. Census officials believe that Lincoln will get above the 250,000 person level in the next year. (LJS File)

The new census figures continue to show the growth of cities and towns in Nebraska’s three largest counties: Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy. Five of the state’s 12 fastest-growing towns are in Lancaster County.

On the down side, Nebraska towns far from cities declined even more steeply in the past year, Drozd said.

The number of towns showing a loss of 10 percent or more since 2000 has tripled from last year.

The 2006 estimate showed 11 percent of Nebraska communities had surpassed the 10 percent mark. This year it’s 31 percent, or 166 of Nebraska's 531 cities or towns.

Put another way, Drozd noted:

The 2006 census estimate showed that 207 Nebraska communities had lost at least 6 percent of their population since 2000. By 2007, 261communities showed a loss of at least seven percent.

In terms of growth, the 2006 estimate showed a population gain in 118 communities since 2000. This year, only 89 still showed growth.

“These numbers kind of show the strength or economic vitality of a place,” Drozd said.

“It’s not that we just have fewer towns that are growing, but the losses are becoming steeper in the struggling communities.”

Winners and losers

* Better tracking — If this year’s numbers look different from last year’s, it may be because the Census Bureau changed how it tracks college students. So college towns, like Lincoln and Kearney, gained while “greater Nebraska” lost residents under the revised system.

*  Does Hallam count? — Of the 12 fastest-growing towns from 2000 to 2007, based on percentage, five are in Lancaster County. But how do you count Hallam, which had to start over after a tornado leveled the town in 2004?

Drozd said Hallam’s census estimate is a little off, skewed by building permit numbers following the 2004 tornado. But Drozd believes Hallam would still rank in the top 10 for growth, based on its overall growth rate over the past seven years.

Here are the top 12:

1. Gretna (Sarpy), 168.9%

2. Hallam (Lancaster), 114.9%

3. Waterloo (Douglas), 79.5%

4. LaVista (Sarpy), 40.3%

5. Elkhorn (Douglas), 39.2%*

6. Hickman (Lancaster), 37.6%

7. Papillion (Sarpy), 35.8%

8. Firth (Lancaster), 25%

9. Bennet (Lancaster), 24.4%

10. Waverly (Lancaster), 24%

11. Boys Town (Douglas), 20.8%

12. Winnebago (Thurston), 19.4%

*Since annexed by Omaha

* Lancaster County towns — Estimates for 2007 (post-2000 gain in parentheses):

Waverly, 3,035 (587)

Hickman, 1,529 (418)

Bennet, 709 (139)

Firth, 705 (141)

Hallam, 593 (317)*

Malcolm, 464 (51)

Panama, 253 (no growth)

Denton, 222 (33)

Raymond, 212 (26)

Davey, 162 (9)

Sprague, 147 (1)

Roca, 218 (-2)

Balance of the county (outside  town limits), 18,672, gained 464

*estimate likely skewed

* Omaha/Elkhorn — Omaha and Elkhorn are listed separately in the data, but if you combine the 424,482 for Omaha and the 8,439 for Elkhorn, the Omaha city total is 432,921, almost identical to city estimates of 433,000 at the time of annexation (March 2007). 

* Last year’s gainers — Drozd puts little stock in one-year changes; they’re often revised. For example, Chadron showed losses in past years, so its current growth may just be a recovery or a one-year anamoly. Others towns may have seen a small bump from a new employer or annexation. He wasn’t sure what caused Winnebago’s gain, though “Thurston County does have a high birth rate,” he said, and recently built a new hospital.

Nonetheless, here are the top 10 one-year gainers by percentage:

1. Winnebago (Thurston), 7.3%

2. Waterloo (Douglas), 6.7%

3. Hickman (Lancaster), 6.6%

4. Raymond (Lancaster), 6%

5. Gretna (Sarpy), 5.8%

6. Boys Town (Douglas), 5.7%

7. Papillion (Sarpy), 4.5%

8. Waverly (Lancaster), 4.2%

9. Chadron (Dawes), 2.4%

10. Sidney (Cheyenne), 2.4%

* Numerically speaking — Top five numeric gainers from 2000 to 2007:

1. Omaha/Elkhorn, 36,852

2. Lincoln, 23,163

3. Papillion, 5,859

4. LaVista, 4,712

5. Bellevue, 4,009

* Numeric losers (2000-07) —

1. Alliance, -895

2. Falls City, -625

3. McCook, -532

4. Holdrege, -466

5. Fairbury, -441

* One-year numeric gainers — Top five numeric gainers 2006-2007:

1. Omaha/Elkhorn, 4,666

2. Lincoln, 3,386

3. Papillion, 954

4. Bellevue, 793

5. Grand Island, 571

* One-year losers — (2006-2007)

1. Norfolk, -719

2. Wayne, -166

3. Fairbury, -109

4. Holdrege, -96

5. Seward, -92

* Goodbye, Columbus — Papillion (22,222 people) is now Nebraska’s 10th largest city, passing Columbus (21,399) in 2007.

* Gretna grows — Gretna (6,333 people) is now Nebraska’s 27th largest city; it was 51st with 2,355 people in 2000. If Gretna grows at 5.8 percent as it did last year, it will more than triple its 2000 population to be around 7,500 persons in 2010.

* What happened in Norfolk?

Norfolk’s large loss was due in part to the closing of a major meat processing facility and associated out-migration. The Norfolk “micropolitan” area had the largest 1-year loss on both a numeric and percentage basis among 576 micropolitan areas across the U.S. (micropolitans are areas based around a core city or town with a population of 10,000 to 49,999)

* Right down the middle —Nebraska’s median size town now has 320 people, the size of Brule, Hadar, Maxwell, and Phillips. Nebraska’s average town size is now 2,624 — about the size of Valentine.

Reach Kendra Waltke at (402) 473-7303 or kwaltke@journalstar.com.


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I wrote on July 10, 2008 1:48 am:
" Well I hope it gets some quarter million jobs. "

 Lars wrote on July 10, 2008 8:05 am:
" Agree with first poster, we need jpbs with the population growth. Especially if the growth comes from mostly unskilled people. "

 russell wrote on July 10, 2008 8:12 am:
" This is bad news because population growth does not pay for itself (at least using Lincoln's model). We will need more POLICE, fire, schools, snowplows, street repair, water, sewers etc. and some reason there will not any tax money to pay those services. NO MORE housing development unless the developers put up ALL of upfront money. "

 Not necessarily a good thing wrote on July 10, 2008 8:14 am:
" Now if we can only teach people to stop growing towns outward and taking precious farmland. To me this is not a positive article at all due to showing towns like gretna and hickman on the outside growing at a faster rate than Lincoln and Omaha.

I guess we'll just have to learn the hard way like we did with oil the past year. We'll have to reach our breaking point with food in the US before we significantly change our ways in building practices and urban sprawl. (the worldwide food shortage mark is set to hit by 2030 with the US expected to cut exports by 2050) "

 al wrote on July 10, 2008 9:48 am:
" I'd like to know how they come up with these figures. They aren't counting every person as people are always coming and going, so how would htese numbers be figured???? "

 CC wrote on July 10, 2008 9:59 am:
" Too bad Lincoln doesn't have the nice shopping, etc of other cities such as Des Moines. Westfield and South Pointe does not compare at all to Jordan Creek in Des Moines or malls in Omaha. Wake up Lincoln!!! Instead the state fair is moved and all that we get is more university shoved down our throats and an arena. "

 Small wrote on July 10, 2008 10:46 am:
" While this should be viewed as a positive there are always the misinformed that believe that growth is a negitive.Contrary to popular belief growth does pay for it's self here how.If the city spends 10,000.00 on infructure to build new homes it recoups it's investment by collecting property tax's at an ever increasing rate over the next 100 years.All of those new houses create jobs while under construction,they all need funiture,fixtures and services this creates jobs for the next 100 years.All of those new homes have people that live in them,those people have jobs,those people have walletts,billfolds and purses and they all spend and invest that money.For those that dispute this take a look at the Lancaster county "small" town growth.Impact fees have forced these people to build there and not inside Lincoln.
What Lincoln has failed to do and continuies to fail to do is build a freeway to move traffic and this is causing money and sales tax revenue to leave Lincoln..I.E. Why should I spend 35 minutes driving from North Lincoln to South Lincoln to shop when for an extra 10 minutes I can be in Omaha? Because of the "think small" crowd you have driven homeowners and builders outside Lincoln.The "think-small" crowd and it's priority of placing bugs and shrubs above progress is driving sales tax money out at an ever increasing rate.It's time to turn a deaf ear to the bug and shrub small minded and move into the future....build a freeway thru Lincoln for both the safety and econmic factors and forget building an oversized barn in an overcrowded area of the city! "

 It aint Lincoln Small wrote on July 10, 2008 11:50 am:
" It's the Nebraska Department of Roads that would be responsible for a "freeway" to move you 10 minutes faster, Small. Lincoln doesn't even own the land the freeways would be built on...the private property is in the County jurisdiction, not the City. And before anyone chimes in again...the city of Lincoln can't lower your LPS property taxes either. "

 JB wrote on July 10, 2008 12:18 pm:
" Can't really compare growth of small towns vs large since the number of people needed for any change differs so much. To biggest gains and loses will always be amoung the smaller cities. To compare Lincoln with Hickman is apples to oranges. "

 Hallam Resident wrote on July 10, 2008 1:42 pm:
" Hallam did an actual door to door count of people as part of aComp Plan update process about 6 months ago and there were just over 200 people in town. That would makse Hallam smaller than it was in 2000, and thus a population looser. There are still many empty lots in Hallam where occupied family homes once stood. "

 Quarter Million wrote on July 10, 2008 1:53 pm:
" Many companies, retailers, industries watch population growth stats for cities that are moving into a new category - i.e. 250,000 or over. Retailers have a minimum population that they consider for a market area and when that population density is reached they will consider opening a store in that city. Likewise business and industry that are looking for new location create profiles of the desireable city - one factor of which is usually population density which helps assure an adequate work force. Lincoln could very well be popping up on a lot of corporate lists with this benchmark. Lincoln has lots of factors that make it more desireable than other similarly sized cities - a better than average median family income, public schools that rank very high, a major university, state capital, etc... Other factors that companies look for are going to require Lincolnites to step out on a limb and make some investments - major entertainment venues, vibrant downtown, communication infrastructure, air, rail and road transport. This is not the time to sit back and clutch our wallets. "

 Yup wrote on July 10, 2008 6:43 pm:
" Sometimes quantity doesn't mean quality. In the case of Lincoln, why is sales tax revenue down, why are the streets full of pot holes? Population growth doesn't seem to equal economic growth. Lincolns quality of life isn't keeping up with the quantity of residents. "

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