Don Walton: Democrats eye Obama attention

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Nebraska Democrats are pleased the Obama campaign will plant an organization in the state for this autumn’s election.

But there could be some tugging over where it concentrates energy and resources.

Polling indicates a presidential electoral vote might be in play for Obama in either Omaha’s 2nd Congressional District or the 1st District, which includes Lincoln.

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In a bit of a surprise, the most recent survey suggests the 1st District might be the best bet.

But Omaha Democrats will argue that a concentrated effort by the Obama campaign to register and rally thousands of new voters in the 2nd District could also give Nebraska Democrats their best shot at winning a congressional race.

The match between Lee Terry and Jim Esch is viewed as the most competitive contest for a House seat this year.

Terry beat Esch by 10 points in 2006 when Esch was unknown and underfunded.  

However, conventional wisdom always seems to underrate the political strength of Terry, the five-term Republican congressman. He regularly outperforms expectations.

And he’s a more focused candidate this year.

This is a particularly challenging election for Republican candidates.

The unanswered question is: Even in Nebraska?

Don’t know that part yet.

Nebraska has been dependably and overwhelmingly Republican for a dozen years.

EFBN, that is.

Except for Ben Nelson in 2000 and 2006.

Even in this difficult season for the GOP, there’s no evidence yet that Nebraska will not remain a dependable island distinct from its neighbors. 

Although this state used to be highly competitive in Senate and gubernatorial races, Iowa, South Dakota, Colorado and Kansas are all more politically competitive now. 

A good political science post-graduate thesis should examine what makes Nebraska different from its neighbors today. 

Got any ideas?

Republicans have won 24      straight House contests in western Nebraska and 21 straight in the 1st District.  The last Democratic House victory came in the 2nd District in 1992.

The GOP presidential nominee has won here 10 straight times.

That’s a tough battlefield for Barack Obama, but the 1st and 2nd District electoral vote contests appear to be skirmishes in which he can compete even though he’ll clearly be the underdog.

When Obama came to Nebraska in February to campaign in advance of the presidential caucuses, there was some tugging among Democrats as to whether he should speak in Lincoln or Omaha.

A slam-dunk capacity crowd of 14,000 or so at the Devaney Center on the UNL campus could have been a party-building event for Nebraska Democrats with impact stretching far into the future.

But Omaha Democrats won that tug and Obama spoke at the Civic Auditorium in downtown Omaha.

Now, where does the Obama campaign concentrate its general election resources in Nebraska?

Omaha?  Lincoln?  Both?

Don’t bet against Omaha.

Lots of rich praise for Tim Russert in the wake of his sudden death.

Part of what I liked about him was his non-partisan voice and upbeat tone.

Way too much taking sides on TV now, both on the left and the right. Commercial radio has been a one-sided political playground for the right for a very long time.

Russert wasn’t a blowhard or a hater like so many of the partisan media voices. He was fair, prepared and informed. 

Unlike so many media types, he wasn’t a cynic.  He was skeptical in an open and healthy way. 

He wasn’t angry or unhappy.  He did not approach public figures with an automatically negative or poisonous mindset. His motive appeared to be to enlighten and inform, not to destroy.

And he wasn’t full of himself.

Not many of those voices left.

Finishing up:

* Ted Sorensen will be honored by Nebraska Democrats at a dinner in Fremont Saturday night.

* Nebraska’s delegates to the Democratic national convention will be selected earlier in the day and hold their first delegation caucus on Sunday.

* Republicans choose their national convention delegates in Omaha on July 12.

* OK, now, before the boats arrive, can we finally say the wettest drought in history is over?

Reach Don Walton at 473-7248 or at dwalton@journalstar.com