Trends in health field are painfully clear

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Two stories that coincidentally appeared within days of each other offered a glimpse of the challenges that face Nebraska as the average age of its residents steadily grows older.

The number of ambulance runs in some counties is spiking. A decade ago in Wymore the volunteer ambulance service was making about 145 runs a year. Last year the number was 212.

Across the state the number of ambulance calls went up 8.5 percent from 2006 to 2007, reaching a total of 133,800 runs.

Meanwhile, the graying of the state’s population is also represented in the ranks of medical workers.

More than half the state’s health professionals are between the ages of 46 and 65. And the percentage of older workers is highest in rural areas.

A survey of state health departments revealed that Nebraska will lose half of its government-employed health workers in the next five years.

State government already is encountering difficulty in attracting workers. Some of the problems at the Beatrice State Developmental Center have been attributed to chronic staffing shortages, for example. A national study found that 9 percent of positions in Nebraska’s health agencies currently are unfilled.

The pressure to increase wages is inexorable. Health costs already are increasing at rates that exceed the pace of inflation. Those pressures will rise as the proportion of people of working age in the population declines, and health care providers face increased competition from other employers.

The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the percentage of the national population aged 65 years and older will rise from 12.4 percent in 2000 to almost 20 percent in 2030. By the year 2040, almost one in four Americans will be age 65 or older, according to those projections.

Other societal trends worsen the picture. Don Harman, physician assistant at the Wymore Clinic said, “Twenty years ago I was told the number of people who worked out of town and were on the EMS squad could be counted on one hand. Now the number of people who work in town and are on the EMS squad can be counted on one hand.”

The magnitude of the problem is painfully easy to grasp. Demographic trends mean that there will be more people in the health-problem prone years at the same time there will be fewer EMS volunteers and fewer people in the work force to provide that care.

Work is underway at the University of Nebraska Medical Center to develop a strategy by next spring to deal with the projected shortage of medical workers. The UNMC staffers will need every spark of genius they can muster. It’s already clear there is no simple solution.